I have been tracking the average age of the top 25 and top 100 for perhaps a decade (without taking notes, which is not very scientific). The narrative was always: “Chess is getting younger” – but the data never really supported it. 10 years ago, the average age of top 10, top 25 and top 100 was all between 30. I checked every few years, and until maybe 2 years ago, this outcome was stable. Then the average age jumped over 31 for the first time! Chess is getting younger indeed.
After 5 rounds of the Olympiad, I looked at the list again. My main interest was surrounding the rating gain of the over 2700s playing in the event. Usually, opens are difficult for these guys, as they struggle to beat 2600s. But in the Olympiad, the dynamic is often different and more unpredictable. Incidentally, after 5 rounds it was +2.26 rating points if we ignore those on 0.
But another phenomenon occurred at the same time. Over 2700 there are 31 players (ignoring Radjabov at 2700 and predicting that he may defend this rating by never playing again). Their average age is 29.00 years, but since this comes from a full number, we should add 6 months. This still makes it 29.50 years old on average. Even the barely active Anand cannot raise the number to over 30! For top 25 is 29.44, or 29.94 after adding the six months.
The biggest number is 25.8, or 26.3 for top 10. We are really seeing a generational change. Less than two years ago Caruana said on his podcast it was not a given that the young strong players would become top players, which I thought was incredibly delusional. Five of these young players are now in top 10: Erigaisi, Gukesh, Abdusattorov, Firouzja and Praggnanandhaa. Gukesh is the challenger to the World Championship. Abdusattorov led Uzbekistan to the biggest surprise in Olympiad history in 2022. Firouzja won in St Louis just now and will regain the tour victory, I predict.
However, this does not mean that it is over for the old guys. The average age in top 100 is 31.33, or 31.83. And Caruana has won a lot of rating in the first few rounds of the Olympiad, taking back the number 2 spot, crossed back over 2800.
We do have a strong new generation of players. We have had this before. Kramnik, Topalov, Lautier, Shirov were all close in age. Same with Carlsen, Karjakin, Nepomniachtchi, and Caruana. When things are random, they are not evenly spread out, but tend to form clusters. I am not sure that these clusters of strong players is entirely random, but they definitely come in clusters. And we are likely to wait another 7-10 years before the next generation of super talented kids are breaking into the elite. We see them already now, at ages 10-13, breaking the records and scaring the wits off everyone…
My prediction for the rating gains of top 30 at the end of the Olympiad is that it will be less than the 2.3 it has been so far. We will check up on that later…